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The 2024 WNBA has finally returned from the month-long All-Star and Olympic hiatus and I will once again be here breaking down the top picks on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays this season. Join me as we build our bankrolls this summer!
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Thursday’s Best WNBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Phoenix Mercury (-2) at Chicago Sky (+114) | O/U 165.5 (-110/-110)
Phoenix is led by a three-headed monster of Brittney Griner, Kahleah Copper, and Diana Taurasi, a trio that just won Olympic gold in Paris. That is great on paper, but in practice, that quick trip back from Paris after a long, hard-fought Gold Medal journey might be too much to overcome, especially on the road at Wintrust Arena. Not for nothing, Chicago has won seven of the last eight games between these two squads dating back nearly three calendar years. Sharps have bet Chicago’s moneyline down from +130 overnight so jump on the Sky before all the value disappears.
On their best day, Phoenix is not stopping most scorers, especially of Carter’s caliber. Today will likely not be their best day with the aforementioned Olympic attrition on their stars so Chennedy Carter should have a field day. The line is about right for her recent production and she has surpassed it in five of her last ten games. During that 10-game stretch, she is averaging 22.0 on the dot including a 34-piece in her last game before the break. Additionally, Carter’s teammate Angel Reese will lock horns with Britney Griner down low further opening things up for Chi-town’s guard.
Phoenix is allowing the third most points per game to opponents (85.8) so a well-rested Carter should fire out of the gate to begin the second half. Full disclosure, Carter tweaked an ankle in practice last week but nothing has been said about it since so it should not be an issue today.
WNBA Picks: Sky Moneyline (+114) & Chennedy Carter Over 21.5 Points (-105)
New York Liberty (-11) at Los Angeles Sparks (+455) | O/U 164.5 (-108/-112)
In the late game, we have another no-brainer. Rickea Jackson has scored 12+ points in six of her last seven games and nine of her last 14. During those 14 games, she is 8-0 against this number when she sees at least 29 minutes. I am incredibly surprised to see this point line emerge from the break still deflated at 11.5. However, they clearly see something as the return has gone from close to even-money last time out to -130 today.
Jackson started the season as the forgotten LA rookie, as the Tennessee star flew below the reader despite being a top draft pick. She has begun to find herself as a pro and that should continue tonight at home, even against a staunch opponent like the Liberty.
Jackson has totaled just 13 points in two games against New York this season but she also played a combined 37 minutes and those games were both in Brooklyn and played two days apart (June 20 & 22). Jackson also attempted just 15 total shots in those two games combined, bottoming out at six attempts in the first game. In the seven games since then Jackson has attempted no fewer than eight shots while reaching double-digit attempts in six of seven contests, averaging 13.6 attempts in that stretch. Jackson has hit this number in nine consecutive contests when attempting 10+ shots and tonight should make it 10 straight.
Tonight should be more even if not one tipped slightly in Jackson’s favor when you combine the month’s rest with the friendly confines of Crypto.com Arena. Jackson is averaging 14.3 points per game in her last six home contests and 15.3 points in her last seven games overall. This game should also remain relatively close (Sparks 8-1 ATS L9 vs. NY) even further strengthening Jackson’s chances of covering this number.
I will hammer Rickea Jackson’s Over as long as Vegas refuses to raise this line above 11.5.
Rickea Jackson Over 11.5 Points vs. Any team…Any time…Any place.
WNBA Picks: Rickea Jackson Over 11.5 Points (-130)
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Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.
