Penn State vs Ohio State Odds, Lines & Predictions

Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson (44) celebrates after sacking Massachusetts quarterback Taisun Phommachanh in the first half of a NCAA football game Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, in State College, Pa. The Nittany Lions won, 63-0.Penn State travels to Columbus to face Ohio State on Saturday, Oct. 21Both the #7 Nittany Lions and #3 Buckeyes enter the game undefeatedGet the Penn State vs Ohio State odds, spread, and predictions for their annual Big Ten East meeting

One of the most tantalizing matchups of the season takes place this Saturday in Columbus as the #7 Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0, 2-0 away, 6-0 ATS) visit the #3 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, 3-0 home, 3-2-1 ATS) at Buckeye Stadium (12:00 pm ET).

Ohio State opened as a 5.5-point home favorite last Sunday, but the point spread has since moved a full point in Penn State’s direction.

Penn State vs Ohio State Odds

Currently, the Buckeyes are laying 4.5 in the Week 8 college football odds and are positioned as -190 moneyline favorites. Penn State comes back as a +155 underdog to win straight-up. The game total is 45.5, which is a full touchdown lower than any other Ohio State game this season. It’s the second-lowest total the Nittanies have seen; their matchup with ultra-low-scoring Iowa had a total of just 38.0 (and still stayed under by a TD thanks to the Penn State defense pitching a shutout in a 31-0 win).

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Odds as of Oct. 19 at BetMGM. Claim this BetMGM bonus code to bet on Penn State vs Ohio State this Saturday. 

The Buckeyes (+925) are currently just the fifth-favorite in the national championship odds behind Georgia, Michigan, Florida State, and Washington. Penn State is next on the  list in sixth at +1250. Despite both remaining undefeated up to this point, neither team has a player among the top-ten favorites in the Heisman odds. Quarterbacks Kyle McCord and Drew Allar sit 11th and 13th, respectively, in the Heisman betting market.

The early betting splits for this game are in line with the odds movement: 85% of ATS handle is currently on Penn State to cover in the college football public betting splits.

Penn State Undefeated Against the Spread

With six dominant wins on their resume, the Nittany Lions are one of just four teams in the nation that remain undefeated against the spread. Penn State’s FBS wins have come over West Virginia (38-15), Illinois (30-13), Iowa (31-0), Northwestern (41-13), and UMass (63-0). They are 4-2 over/under to date, including two straight overs against Northwestern (47.5 O/U) and UMass (55.0 O/U).

Allar has been rock-steady under center. The 6’5 sophomore has thrown 12 touchdowns and no interceptions while averaging 209 yards per game on a 65.2 completion percentage. His passing yards would be higher if not for backup Beau Pribula spelling him in mop-up time.

Running behind future top-ten draft pick Olu Fashanu, Penn State’s two-headed backfield tandem of Kaytron Allen (375 yards on 78 carries) and Nicholas Singleton (362 yards on 89 carries) give the Nittanies a balanced attack, not unlike what Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman and RB Audric Estime brought in Week 4.

The Penn State defense has two more likely first-round picks, CB Kalen King and edge rusher Chop Robinson, who have spearheaded a unit that’s allowing just 8.0 PPG through six games, second in the nation to Michigan (6.7 PPG).

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Ohio State Totals Consistently Staying Under

Unlike unblemished Penn State, Ohio State is just 3-2-1 ATS, but did cover each of its past two games: 37-17 over Maryland and 41-7 over Purdue, both as 17-point favorites. They pushed the week prior at Notre Dame with a last-second 17-14 victory.

The Buckeyes, who haven’t been as dynamic offensively as many expected, have a 1-5 over/under record on the season. Only their 63-10 rout of Western Kentucky managed to go over its total (64.5).

Junior QB Kyle McCord has been steady if not exceptional in his first year as starter. The 6’3 junior is averaging 275.2 yards per game on 64.1% passing with 11 touchdowns and just one INT which came all the way back in Week 1 against Indiana.

Unfortunately for McCord, the Ohio State backfield is something of a shambles. Lead running back Treveyon Henderson has missed the past two games with an undisclosed injury, as has Miyan Williams, number two on the Buckeye depth chart. Head coach Ryan Day said he was “hopeful” both Henderson and Williams would be back this week, but didn’t offer anything more concrete. Making matters worse, Chip Trayanum, who entered the Purdue game as the starting RB, only managed six carries before sustaining an injury of his own and leaving the game.

Dallan Hayden, who didn’t have a carry this season up to that point, finished the Purdue game as the team’s leading rusher (76 yards on 11 carries). But the fact that Hayden is Ohio State’s Plan D just showcases their ludicrous depth. The sophomore had 510 rushing yards as a freshman, including three 100-plus-yard games against Toledo, Indiana, and Maryland.

Penn State vs Ohio State Predictions

While they haven’t faced an offense anywhere close to what Ohio State will bring to the table, this Penn State defense is legit. They’ve already recorded two shutouts against FBS competition and are allowing just over five points per first half. Their 193.7 yards per game rates as the best in the country … by 40 yards. With Ohio State’s offense at something less than 100%, expect the Nittanies to put in another stingy performance.

Ohio State’s defense has put on a clinic of its own this season, and actually sits just one spot behind PSU in scoring defense (third in the nation at 9.8 PPG) while ranking seventh in yards per game (263.5). While Allar has been more than serviceable so far, this is going to be a rude awakening for the sophomore. Bank on this game resembling Ohio State’s heavyweight clash with the Irish, a 17-14 defensive slugfest that stayed well under the total of 55.5.

Penn State vs Ohio State Picks:

Penn State +4.5 (-110)First half under 21.5 (-108)

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