North Carolina vs Clemson Prediction, Odds & Picks – ACC Football Week 12

Nov 11, 2023; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson running back Will Shipley (1) takes a handoff from quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) behind running back Phil Mafah (7) against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets during the third quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY SportsThe #20 North Carolina Tar Heels need a win over the Clemson Tigers in Week 12 to keep their hopes of a berth in the ACC title game aliveWinners of two straight and 5-1 at home on the season, Clemson is a big 6.5-point home favorite over UNCSee the North Carolina vs Clemson odds, spread, picks and predictions for Week 12 (Nov. 18)

Still harboring slim hopes of qualifying for the 2023 ACC Championship Game, the #20 North Carolina Tar Heels (8-2, 1-1 away, 6-4 ATS) need a road win over the Clemson Tigers (6-4, 5-1 home, 4-6 ATS) in Week 12 to remain in contention.

Kick-off is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET this Saturday, Nov. 18, at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, South Carolina. The UNC vs Clemson point spread opened at more than a touchdown in the home team’s favor, but has moved slightly towards the Tar Heels as the week has gone by.

North Carolina vs Clemson Odds

The Week 12 college football odds now list Clemson as a 6.5-point favorite, down from 7.5 as of last Sunday. The moneyline, which opened at -285/+230 in the Tigers’ favor, has narrowed to -250/+210.

Odds as of Nov. 16, 2023, at ESPN Bet. Use the code DIME to claim SBD’s special ESPN Bet promo and get $250 in bonus bets to use on any sport.

North Carolina will be eliminated from the ACC title game race if Louisville (6-1 ACC) beats Miami on the road in Week 12. UNC is still listed in the national championship odds, but at +150000, oddsmakers are implying they have no real chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

Clemson Improves to 5-1 at Home

The year has been a tale of two seasons for Dabo Swinney’s Tigers. On the road, they’re an ugly 1-3 with their only victory coming against Syracuse. At home, however, they are 5-1 and their only loss came in overtime to undefeated Florida State (31-24), a game in which Clemson put up 429 yards of offense compared to just 311 for the Noles.

After beating Notre Dame 31-23 as 2.5-point home underdogs in Week 10, Clemson followed up with a decisive 42-21 win over Georgia Tech last Saturday, accumulating 211 more yards of offense than the Yellow Jackets on the day (465 to 254).

Quarterback Cade Klubnik epitomizes Clemson’s home/road struggles. The sophomore has thrown 13 of his 18 TD passes in Clemson’s six home games, but just five in four road games along with four of his seven interceptions.

Spearheaded by Will Shipley, the Clemson running game has found a great complement in fellow junior Phil Mafah. With Shipley injured against the Irish, Mafah racked up a career-best 186 yards on the ground and matched his career high with two touchdowns. That was just the second time Mafah went over 100 yards in a game, and certainly helped erase the memory of his costly fumble in Clemson’s Week 1 blowout loss at Duke.

Mafah fumble at the 1 yard line pic.twitter.com/EGQk5IaokF

— BroncoinVA (@catanddog4824) September 5, 2023

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UNC Playing Just Third Road Game This Year

While Clemson has been busy piling up victories at home, the Tar Heels have only left the state of North Carolina twice this entire season. In their first true road game, UNC took down Pitt 41-24 as seven-point road favorites. But in the second, they were edged 46-42 at Georgia Tech as 12-point road chalk.

UNC also has a “neutral field” win over South Carolina on their resume from Week 1 (31-17), but that game took place at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, and was “neutral” in name only.

Quarterback Drake Maye has led the Tar Heels to some impressive home victories, including last week’s 47-45 double-OT shootout with arch-rival Duke. They didn’t come close to covering as 10.5-point home favorites, but Maye did lead his team on a game-tying drive after Duke went up by a field-goal with just 45 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.

An outside contender in the Heisman odds for much of the season, Maye faded just outside the top-ten favorites after the loss to GT and hasn’t made his way back into the upper echelon. He is currently fourth in the nation in passing yards (3,145) while running back Omarion Hampton is second in rushing yards (1,236), trailing OK State’s Ollie Gordon II by just 14 yards.

Maye has a passing-yards over/under ranging from 265.5 to 270.5, considerably higher than Klubnik (237.5 to 244.5) in the Week 12 NCAAF player props.

UNC vs Clemson Prediction

On a neutral field, I might take UNC to win straight-up. The prolific Drake Maye gives them a significant advantage at QB. But in the tremendously hostile environment of Memorial Stadium, against a Clemson team that should still be perfect at home and has faced the likes of FSU and Notre Dame, I will take the Tigers to, not just win, but win comfortably.

Shipley and Mafah will have a field day against a UNC rush defense that was shredded for 348 rushing yards by Georgia Tech, 228 by Virginia, and 198 by Duke.

North Carolina vs Clemson pick: Clemson -6.5 (-110)

 

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