Missouri vs Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Picks – Cotton Bowl 2023

Ohio State Buckeyes tight end Cade Stover (8) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the NCAA football game against the Purdue Boilermakers, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Ohio State Buckeyes won 41-7.The 2023 Cotton Bowl features Missouri vs Ohio State on Friday, Dec. 29, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TXOhio State will be missing starting QB Kyle McCord and possibly WR Marvin Harrison JrBelow, see the Ohio State vs Missouri odds and predictions for the 2023 Cotton Bowl

Not the bowl game Buckeye faithful were hoping for at the start of the season, #7 Ohio State (11-1, 6-4-1 ATS) will square off with the #9 Missouri Tigers (10-2, 8-4 ATS) in the 2023 Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Friday, Dec. 29, at 7:00 pm CT/8:00 pm ET.

Despite a long list of opt-outs on the Buckeye sideline, Ohio State is still the betting favorite heading into Friday’s game.

Missouri vs Ohio State Odds

The Buckeyes are 3.5-point favorites and -190 on the moneyline in the college football odds for the Cotton Bowl. Missouri is a +160 underdog to win its third Cotton Bowl in just its fourth appearance (and first since 2014).

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The college football public betting splits for the Cotton Bowl show a stark divide between spread bettors and moneyline bettors. Missouri is getting slightly more ATS handle (56%) as 3.5-point underdogs, but Ohio State is getting over 90% of moneyline handle as -190 chalk.

Ohio State Missing Key Players for Cotton Bowl

The 2023 bowl game opt-out tracker shows a litany of Ohio State players who will miss the Cotton Bowl after entering the transfer portal. The list isn’t filled with impact players, though starting QB Kyle McCord is among them, which came as a big surprise to many. (McCord has since committed to annual also-ran Syracuse.)

With McCord (3,170 passing yards, 24 TD, six INTs, 83.8 QBR) out of the lineup, Ryan Day will give the start to sophomore Devin Brown, who was 12-of-22 for 197 yards, two TD, one INT in mop-up duty this season. This will be Brown’s first career start. He saw no action as a freshman.

Star receiver Marvin Harrison Jr is with the team but isn’t practicing ahead of the Cotton Bowl, indicating he will sit out and not risk injury ahead of the 2024 NFL draft, where he’s expected to be a top-five pick (likely top three).

The only reason Ohio State isn’t part of the four-team College Football Playoff was a third straight loss to Michigan in The Game (30-24 away) in their final test of the regular season. Up to that point, the Buckeyes had built up an 11-0 record with wins over then-#9 Notre Dame (17-14 away) and then-#7 Penn State (20-12 home).

The presence/absence of Harrison is going to have a massive impact on this game. Labeled by many as the best wide receiver prospect in a generation, Harrison racked up 1,211 receiving yards on the season, more than double any other Buckeye. Tight end Cade Stover was second on the team with 576 yards.

If (and I suspect when) Harrison is officially listed as out, expect this line to move significantly towards Mizzou.

Ohio State finished the year rated second in the Football Power Index with the eighth-most efficient offense and fourth-most efficient defense.

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Missouri Impresses with Three Top 25 Wins

Picked to finish second-last in the SEC East in the preseason media poll (only ahead of Vanderbilt), Missouri stunned pundits on a weekly basis while going 10-2 with wins over #15 Kansas State (30-27 home), #24 Kentucky (38-21 away), and #12 Tennessee (36-7 home).

The Tigers’ two losses came against Heisman-winner Jayden Daniels and LSU (49-39 home) and two-time defending national champion Georgia (30-21 away). They failed to cover their first two non-con games as big favorites over South Dakota (35-10 as 27-point favorites) and Middle Tennessee (23-19 as 21-point chalk) before going 8-2 ATS the rest of the way.

Quarterback Brady Cook continued to improve in his junior season, accumulating 3, 189 passing yards on a 66.4 completion percentage with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. His top target, WR Luther Burden, was just behind Harrison in receiving yards (1,191), finishing tenth in the nation in that category, while running back Cody Schrader was fifth in the country in rushing yards (1,489) and scored a team-high 13 TDs.

Missouri finished the year 16th in the FIP (11th on offense and 25th on defense).

Missouri vs Ohio State Prediction

This is going to feel like the Super Bowl for the Tigers, who haven’t played in a bowl game this big in nearly a decade.

The vast majority of Ohio State’s top-tier defense is suiting up, but the Tigers have been squaring off with some of the best defenses in the SEC all season. Brady Cook and company were only held under 33 points once in the past nine games, and that was at Georgia.

Without McCord and likely Harrison, the Ohio State offense is going to be a shell of the team that averaged 32.8 PPG in the regular season.

Mizzou vs Ohio State pick: Missouri moneyline (+160)