Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns Odds, Picks & Predictions

Mar 24, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) and guard Mike Conley (10) celebrate against the Golden State Warriors in the fourth quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY SportsThe Timberwolves face the Suns in the NBA on Friday NightThe Timberwolves vs Suns odds favor the home teamKeep reading for the odds, picks, and predictions for Timberwolves vs Suns

With the NBA regular season winding down, two teams battling for playoff positioning play each other on Friday night. The play-in tournament regular Timberwolves (53-23) are in a different position this year. They have a half-game lead over the Nuggets for the 1 seed in the NBA playoff bracket.

The Suns (45-31) are currently the 6 seed, but the Western Conference playoff picture is a tight race. Phoenix is just a game behind the current 5 seed but is also just a game ahead of the 8 seed. Both teams have just six games left in the regular season, so it should be an exciting finish to the year.

This game will tip off at 10 pm ET at Footprint Center in Phoenix, AZ. The Suns are favored by 4.5 points at home, and the total is set at 216.5 points.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns Odds

With Phoenix being -175 on the moneyline, Friday’s NBA odds give the Suns an implied win probability of 63.64%. Both the spread and total have moved substantially since the odds came out. The Suns opened as 3-point favorites and have now moved to -4.5. The O/U was up to 220 points but has been bet down to 216.5.

Despite having the better record, the Suns still have better NBA championship odds. Phoenix has the sixth-best odds in the NBA at +2300, while the Timberwolves have the eighth-best at +3000.

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Timberwolves Betting Trends

Minnesota is 39-35-2 (52.7%) against the spread this season, and they have covered the spread in each of their last three games as an underdog. The Timberwolves are also 4-1 against the spread in games this year where they are underdogs of at least 4.5 points.

The Timberwolves enter this game winning six of their last seven and are averaging 111.7 points per game during that stretch. More impressively, Minnesota has been doing this without Karl Anthony-Towns who has not played since early March. The Timberwolves are 10-4 without KAT on the court and have not skipped a beat. There is still optimism that Anthony-Towns can return for the NBA playoffs.

From the archives 📹 pic.twitter.com/BYHFiJLgK9

— Karl-Anthony Towns (@KarlTowns) April 3, 2024

They have been able to stay successful because of their lights-out shooting. Minnesota is ranked third in the NBA in three-point percentage and tenth in field goal percentage. The T-Wolves are shooting 38.8% from behind the arc. They are led by Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley in the backcourt. Edwards scores over 26 points per game, and Conley is shooting 43.8% from behind the three-point line.

It is not all offense, though, for Minnesota. They are also third in three-point percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 35% from three. Minnesota makes their presence known on the glass as well with the NBA Defensive Player of the Year favorite Rudy Gobert. Gobert is pulling down nearly 13 rebounds per game and has over 2 blocks a game. The NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds list Gobert as the -2500 favorite to win the award.

Minnesota is the current Western Conference’s top seed, but the Nuggets are just half a game behind. The Conference’s seeding has been tight all season, so Minnesota will need to continue its winning streak to lock up the top seed before the regular season ends.

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Suns Betting Trends

The Suns are 32-42-2 (43.2%) against the spread this year, but they have covered the spread in five of their last six games as favorites of 4.5 points or more. Phoenix has won six of their last eight games straight up and will need to continue winning in order to cement their NBA playoff seeding.

Phoenix has dominated the all-time series against the Timberwolves. The Suns are 81-44 head-to-head and 10-2 straight up in their last twelve games.

The Suns are a top ten team in the NBA when it comes to scoring as they put up 116.1 points per game. Devin Booker leads the team and is fifth in the NBA with 27.6 points per game, and he has been on a tear lately. In his last two games, Booker is shooting over 50% from three and has scored 52 points and 40 points. Booker does not do it alone, though. Kevin Durant is averaging 27.5 points per game and put up 32 in his last outing.

Phoenix is not far behind the Timberwolves when it comes to three-point percentage. They are fifth in the NBA shooting 38.3%. The Suns have struggled at times giving up the three, as they have allowed opponents to shoot 41% from behind the arc in their last three games.

Timberwolves vs Suns Prediction

Both of these teams have been hot and are fighting for positioning in the NBA playoffs. The Timberwolves and Suns have both put up explosive offensive performances recently, so this game will come down to whose defense plays better.

I give that edge to Minnesota, who is especially good at guarding the three. It is not easy fading Devin Booker and Kevin Durant right now, but if the Timberwolves can continue to limit their opponent’s shooting percentage and Rudy Gobert controls the glass, this should be a close game.

While the Suns have been hot, they continue to struggle in the fourth quarter. They rank 30th in fourth quarter points this season with 24.9, so even if they hit some shots early, the Timberwolves will have opportunities late to close the gap.

Minnesota’s offense is right there with Phoenix, and Mike Conley has been a major part of that. On top of shooting over 43% from behind the three-point line, Conley has made at least three three-pointers in five of his last six games. In two of those games, he hit five three-pointers. The Suns have been allowing teams to shoot the three, so I expect a big game from Conley.

MIN vs PHX Picks: 

Timberwolves +4.5 (-115)Mike Conley Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (+100)

 

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