Expert Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Dec 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito (15) reacts before the game against the Green Bay Packers at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY SportsThis week our expert NFL ATS picks have selections from nine different games for Week 15Can the Bills halt the Cowboys’ impressive five-game winning streak as 2-point home favorites?Get all of our top NFL picks against the spread from these games and more here

While some weeks there looks like clear consensus choices for NFL picks against the spread, this is not one of those weeks. Among our three NFL prognosticators, our group has each selected not only three different teams each for their Week 15 ATS picks, but also three different games. And somehow, all of those nine still came from Sunday, where there are only 11 games.

Read on for all of our top Week 15 NFL picks against the spread here.

NFL Expert Picks Today

There’s no real consensus this week in our NFL picks against the spread as our panel members have each chosen three different teams to bet on. Among them are the Bills over the Cowboys in one of the games of the weekend and the Ravens over the Jags on SNF.

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Ryan Metivier

Chiefs (-8)

The Chiefs keep showing us they’re not the same team they used to be. And yet, here I am lining up with them as over a touchdown favorite in the NFL odds. They had been 10-0 following a loss until last week when they lost 20-17 against Buffalo, though had victory ripped away from them with a controversial offside call. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid were fuming and it’s that frustration that I see them bringing to this game this week and taking out on the Patriots.

New England won and even scored 20 points last week, beating Pittsburgh 21-18. But all of those points came in the first half and they had scored 0, 7 and 6 points in the three games prior. One half of decent football for Bailey Zappe doesn’t reverse the season-long trend that has seen the Patriots score the fewest PPG at 13.0.

KC has wins of 8, 31, 3, 7, 11, 11, 14, 7 and 14 points, so even in a down year, they can still cover a number like this when they do get in gear. They also haven’t lost three in a row with Patrick Mahomes as QB and haven’t done so overall since 2014.

49ers (-12)

The current favorites in the odds to win Super Bowl, San Francisco have been straight-up rolling through their opponents since their bye week. Their last five games have been wins by scores of 34-3, 27-14, 31-13, 42-19 and 28-15. That wins by 31, 13, 18, 23 and 13 points—all margins that would cover the 12 points they’re favored by this week.

They’ve also already beaten this Cardinals team earlier this season by a 35-16 score, 19 points. The results were no different last year with San Fran winning 38-13 and 38-10 as well.

The Rams just came to Arizona two weeks ago and ran away with a 37-14 win. San Fran are a perfect 18-0 SU when all of Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are healthy and all are healthy here and putting up impressive numbers in recent weeks.

The #49ers are now the No. 5 best team ever tracked by DVOA through 13 games. #Ravens are 11th despite dropping a bit this week.

Not listed: 1987 49ers, because they only played 12 (real) games.#FTTB #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/X03AUpjsW0

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) December 11, 2023

Ravens (-3)

The Ravens are relatively healthy heading into Week 15. The Jaguars have a few more injury concerns, despite Trevor Lawrence looking to be recovered from an ankle sprain that almost kept him out last week. This week their concerns are along the offensive line where LT Walker Little and LG Ezra Cleveland are questionable. WR Christian Kirk was already recently placed on the IR. As well as in the secondary where FS Andre Cisco is out, and CBs Tyson Campbell and Tre Herndon are questionable.

I think the Jags are a good but not great team. That especially holds true at home where they’re just 3-4. This is also a team riding a two-game losing streak that came against Joe Flacco and the Browns and Jake Browning and the Bengals.

The Ravens are just a better team right now and are 3-0 SU in their past three and 7-1 SU in their past eight. I think the Ravens win here and each of the Ravens ten wins have come by at least three points. Nine have come by more than three.

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Bob Duff

Giants (+5.5)

Does QB Tommy DeVito have a long-term future with the New York Giants? Who knows? His immediate future is what matters right now. Coming off his biggest game as a pro, beating the Packers on MNF, DeVito and the Giants go to New Orleans as a six-point road underdogs.

The Saints are a dismal 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. New Orleans might win this game, but take the Giants to cover.

Rams (-6.5)

The Los Angeles Rams put a scare into the Ravens in Baltimore last week, finally succumbing in OT. The LA offense is averaging 422 yards per game the past three weeks. QB Matthew Stafford looks reborn.

This week, they get to attack a Commanders squad that is last in the NFL in total defense (4,938 yards allowed), passing defense (3,458 yards allowed) and scoring defense (30.4 points per game allowed).

Browns (-3)

The Chicago Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They just whipped the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions. It’s trendy to get on the Justin Fields bandwagon.

He hasn’t seen anything like the Cleveland defense, though. The Browns are an NFL-best 6-1 SU and ATS at home this season. Their defense allows 3.8 yards per carry and 4.6 yards per pass attempt at home. Cleveland has also recorded 28 sacks at home.

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Zach Reger

Falcons (-3)

It is Week 15, and the Carolina Panthers have only covered the spread twice this season. Even though Atlanta is coming off a tough loss to the Bucs last week, they are in a good spot on Sunday.

Since getting their only victory of the season against the Texans, Carolina has gone on to lose six straight games by at least three points. The Falcons have had some frustrations of their own this year, but it is tough to see Bryce Young and co. having much success against Atlanta’s defense.

Packers (-3.5)

After a loss to the Giants on Monday Night Football, Green Bay gets to return home where they beat the Chiefs their last time there. Jordan Love came back to Earth last week, but he should play better this week.

I give the edge to the home team with the better coach in this one. The Packers should beat Tampa Bay by at least four.

Josh Allen is putting up numbers 😳 pic.twitter.com/VHk5BFcJah

— PFF (@PFF) December 14, 2023

Bills (-2)

The Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. They are coming off a huge win against the Eagles and have scored an average of 40 points over their last five games. Four of those five games have been at home, however, and now they are going on the road to Buffalo.

The Bills are still technically alive in the AFC East with the Dolphins losing on Monday night. They are fighting for a playoff spot, and I think they slow down the Cowboys this week. Give me the Bills at home.

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