Citrus Bowl Preview – Iowa vs Tennessee Prediction & Odds

Nov 18, 2023; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes tight end Addison Ostrenga (87) and quarterback Deacon Hill (10) and offensive lineman Logan Jones (65) and defensive lineman Yahya Black (94) come onto the field during the Iowa Swarm before the game against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve made our Iowa vs Tennessee prediction for the Citrus BowlThe Vols are currently favorites against the spread on New Year’s DayRead below for Iowa vs Tennessee prediction, odds and Citrus Bowl preview

Iowa (10-3) and Tennessee (8-4) will meet in the Citrus Bowl on January 1st at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. Kickoff is set for 1:00pm ET on ABC.

The oddsmakers have installed Tennessee as 6-point favorites, with the over/under set at 35 points. The Hawkeyes’ stifling defense and inefficient offense have led to oddsmakers setting very low game totals for their matchups.

Let’s get into our Iowa vs Tennessee prediction, as we preview the Citrus Bowl and analyze the betting odds.

Iowa vs Tennessee Odds

In the Iowa vs Tennessee odds for the Citrus Bowl, the Volunteers are -215 moneyline favorites, giving them 68% implied win probability.

Joe Milton’s opt out caused the Iowa vs Tennessee betting line to shift from 8-8.5 to around 6.5. It continues to shift towards Iowa even after the opt out.

Odds as of December 31st, at ESPN Bet. Unlock a $250 bonus for the Citrus Bowl when you sign up with the promo code “DIME”

Hawkeyes Are Dominant on Defense

Iowa comes into this game with a 10-3 record after edging out Nebraska in Week 14 and then getting blown out by Michigan in the Big Ten Championship game. However, prior to the ugly loss, the Hawkeyes were on a four-game winning streak, including nice wins over Northwestern and Illinois.

Iowa’s strength all season has been defense, ranking 5th nationally by allowing just 101.9 rushing yards and 172.2 passing yards per game. Iowa’s defense is truly impressive, keeping their opponents to 16 points or fewer in 11 out of 13 games. Their defensive coordinator, Phil Parker, won the Broyles Award as the nation’s top assistant coach.

And the 2023 Broyles Award winner is…Coach Phil Parker of @TheIowaHawkeyes! pic.twitter.com/XXmNsaErXP

— The Broyles Award (@BroylesAward) December 5, 2023

Brian Ferentz, Iowa’s offensive coordinator and the head coach’s son, is overseeing the offense for the last time in this bowl contest. Quarterback Deacon Hill has thrown for 1,096 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions since replacing injured Cade McNamara.

Iowa doesn’t have a standout receiver this year, which has led to major struggles for their passing game. The Hawkeyes are averaging just 123.2 passing yards per contest and 16.6 points per game.

Iamaleava Era Begins in Tennessee

In his first game as a starting quarterback, freshman Nico Iamaleava will lead the Volunteers against the Hawkeyes in the Citrus Bowl. The youngster is getting the nod after sixth-year senior Joe Milton decided to opt out of the bowl game.

BREAKING: Tennessee true freshman QB Nico Iamaleava will start the Citrus Bowl vs. Iowa.

Iamaleava was the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 On300👀https://t.co/rwUOsJ0MLd pic.twitter.com/mbspgoUYN3

— On3 (@On3sports) December 27, 2023

Iamaleava takes over an explosive Tennessee offense that is averaging 31.5 points per game. However, with top running backs Jaylen Wright (1,013 yards) and Jabari Small (475 yards) joining Milton as Tennessee bowl opt otus, scoring could be challenging for the Vols. Dylan Sampson, who has 471 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, will become the main running back.

Tennessee also enters the Citrus Bowl following some tough losses. The Vols were blown out by Georgia and Missouri down the stretch, although they rebounded with a big 48-24 victory over Vanderbilt in Week 15. Before that, they had impressive wins over Texas A&M and Kentucky that had fans optimistic about a potential SEC Title.

Tennessee’s defense has been a liability much of the year, failing to get the job done in their toughest tests. The Vols have the second-best rushing defense in the SEC, but are allowing 235 yards per contest through the air. They give up 22 points per game on average.

Iowa vs Tennessee Prediction

Iowa’s advantage is clearly on defense. They have playmakers at all three levels and have dominated opponents all season. Tennessee has struggled against good defenses like Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri. The Vols will need to protect the football and sustain some long drives.

For Tennessee, they have a significant edge on offense. Their passing game is far superior to Iowa’s and they have the ground game to control the tempo. If their offensive line can hold up, they should be able to put points on the board. Iowa does not have the firepower to keep pace if the Vols get rolling.

Tennessee ranked #122 in the country in red zone touchdown percentage this season.

The Vols ranked #1 in that stat in 2022.

How efficient the offense is in the red zone against Iowa under Nico Iamaleava will be interesting to see in the Citrus Bowl.

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) December 28, 2023

This looks like a classic strength vs strength matchup between Tennessee’s high-flying offense and Iowa’s stifling defense. Turnovers and explosive plays could be the difference. 

It’s hard to know what to expect from Iamaleava in his first collegiate start. We do, however, know what to expect from Iowa’s defense. With the total set so low, oddsmakers don’t expect either team to blow this game open. The Hawkeyes are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games, and we’re backing them to continue their underdog trend.

Citrus Bowl Pick:

Iowa +6 (-110)

 

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