BetIQ Daily: NFL Week 13 Upset Picks

BetIQ Daily: NFL Week 13 Upset Picks

Picks for Wednesday highlight the upcoming Week 13 games and upset picks against the moneyline, including the Chargers against Cincinnati.

December 1, 2021 – by Jason Lisk

Austin Ekeler and the Chargers will face a Denver team looking for a breakout (Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)

Wednesday, December 1 (#9) at 12:00 p.m. ET

Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.

This is just a small sample of picks available over the next few days, which include college basketball, NBA, and the upcoming college football conference championship game picks.

See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.

3 Upset Picks For NFL Week 13

1) Los Angeles Chargers +140 (at Cincinnati) — NFL Moneyline Pick

Sunday, Dec. 5 at 1:00 p.m. ET.Highest-rated moneyline play for Week 13, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.The inconsistent Chargers are only 2-5 ATS as a favorite, but they’re 3-1 ATS and SU when not favored.The Chargers are 31st in third-down conversion percentage allowed and 29th in points allowed, but they’re only 14th in yards allowed.

1) Detroit Lions +254 (vs. Minnesota) — NFL Moneyline Pick

Sunday, Dec. 5 at 1:00 p.m. ET.Playable moneyline pick according to both our Ensemble Forecast and Decision Tree models.Minnesota is 30th in total yards allowed and 32nd in yards allowed per carry.The Lions have covered (but failed to win) four of their last five games as an underdog.

3) Seattle Seahawks +145 (vs. San Francisco) — NFL Moneyline Pick

Sunday, Dec. 5 at 4:25 p.m. ET.The Seahawks (+3.5) are one of our top-rated spread picks for Week 13.Our Predictive Rating Models show value on the Seahawks, who are rated as 2.4 points below the 49ers before adding home-field advantage.Seattle is 1-4 in one-score games in 2021 after an 8-3 mark in such games during the regular season last year.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season.

These records are for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence, assuming typical -110 payout odds) against game-day betting lines.

NFL point spread picks: 37-26-1 (59%, +7.7 units)College football over/under picks: 168-141-3 (54%, +11.7 units)College basketball over/under picks: 239-210-6 (53%, +7.3 units)NBA spread picks: 13-7 (65%, +4.8 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

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