Argentina vs Colombia Predictions, Picks & Props to Target for Copa America Final

Jul 6, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Colombia forward Luis Diaz (7) celebrates with midfielder James Rodriguez (10) after scoring a goal in the Copa America Quarterfinal against the Panama at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsColombia can win their first Copa America title since 2001 this Sunday when they face defending-champion ArgentinaColombia are unbeaten in 28 matches, including the entire tenure of coach Néstor Lorenzo, but they haven’t faced Argentina in that spanBelow, find the Argentina vs Colombia predictions and best props to bet for the 2024 Copa America final in Miami on July 14

Defending Copa America and World Cup-champion Argentina (4-1-0) clash with the hottest team on the globe, Colombia, in the final of the 2024 Copa America on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET and the Argentines are favored to win their third straight  major-tournament trophy.

Argentina vs Colombia Odds

Argentina are +109 to win in regular time with Colombia at a long +375 and a full-time draw at just +200. The over/under on 1.5 goals favors the over at -175 with under 1.5 at +137. Only one of each team’s first five matches in the tournament stayed under 1.5 goals. Neither has played a goal-less draw. Colombia’s first five games have averaged 2.8 GPG while Argentina’s have averaged 2.0 GPG.

The 2024 Copa America championship odds currently list Argentina at -200 to lift the trophy and Colombia at +162.

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Odds as of July 14 at bet365. Lock in a bet365 promo code for Argentina vs Colombia on Sunday night. 

Colombia Blank Uruguay, But Lose Daniel Munoz

Colombia put on a defensive masterclass in the semifinals against Uruguay. Despite playing the final 45 minutes with ten men – after right back Daniel Munoz received two first-half yellows – they held Uruguay to just 0.65 xGF over 90 minutes and three shots on target.

While the teams were playing 11 aside in the first half, Colombia was the more dangerous team and were good value for Jefferson Lerma’s 39th-minute goal, headed in off a James Rodriguez corner.

The win over Uruguay stretched Colombia’s unbeaten streak to a world-best 28 games, which includes every game under coach Nestor Lorenzo, who took over in July 2022 after Colombia disappointingly missed out on the 2022 World Cup. Lorenzo has a 19-6-0 record in all competitions as the Colombia boss.

Munoz, a Crystal Palace defender who has the third-highest estimated transfer value among the Colombia team, is suspended for the final.  Santiago Arias is the most-likely player to slot in at right back. The 32-year-old former Atletico Madrid player has spend the past two seasons in MLS and Brazil’s Serie A.

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Argentina Outclass Canada … Again

Argentina have advanced to their second straight Copa America final, and did so without having to face a team ranked higher than  30th in the world (Ecuador). During the group stage, they went 3-0-0 with three clean sheets against Canada (2-0), Chile (1-0), and Peru (2-0).

Argentina drew Ecuador in the quarters and were on pace for a regular-time victory before a goal in the final minutes stoppage time allowed Ecuador to level the match at 1-1 after 90 minutes. Despite Lionel Messi missing the first penalty of the ensuing shootout, Emiliano Martinez backstopped Argentina to another penalty victory.

In the semifinals, upstart Canada was outclassed in another 2-0 decision with Argentina winning both halves 1-0 and conceding just two shots on target over the 90. Messi finally scored his first goal of the tournament, an insurance marker just six minutes into the second half.

Lautaro Martinez still leads the Golden Boot race with four goals, all of which came in the group stage. Luis Diaz, Jhon Cordoba, and Munoz lead Colombia with two each.

Argentina didn’t suffer any injuries or suspensions in the semifinal and should have their full complement of players available for the final against Colombia.

Argentina vs Colombia Picks, Predictions & Props to Target

Finding fault with Argentina’s run through the tournament is not an easy task, but compared to Colombia’s indomitable five-match stretch, Argentina looked like the second-best side heading into Sunday’s final.

Lorenzo has Colombia humming in all phases of the game, and James Rodriguez appears to have accessed a time machine. The 33-year-old, who won the Golden Boot at the 2014 World Cup a decade ago, has scored or assisted on seven of Colombia’s 12 goals (one goal, six assists).

Colombia have faced stiffer competition – including a 1-1 draw with Brazil in the group stage – and were the better team on the field in every match they’ve played. I’m not betting Colombia to win in regular time, but I have no interest in betting them to lose.

Double-chance: Colombia or draw (-138 at bet365)First half under 0.5 goals (+145 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 32-19-1 (+14.72 units)All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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