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I was lost with the lack of domestic soccer last weekend. However, we made it through the break and we’re back with a full Matchday 5 slate in the Premier League. Let’s waste no time and dive into my top three plays for this weekend’s action.
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Premier League Matchday5 Preview & Best Bets (2023)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Soccer Betting Record 2023-2024: 10-7 (+0.11 units)
Newcastle (-180) vs. Brentford (+500), DRAW (+330) | 2.5 (-150/+120)
Newcastle will play its final domestic match before having to balance both the PL and the Champions League, which starts on Tuesday. They’ll host Brentford for the Saturday nightcap, which is slated for 12:30 p.m. ET from St. James’ Park in Newcastle.
The Bees have proven to be a formidable foe this season as they’re off to an unbeaten start at 1-3-0. The main reason that I like the over here is that Brentford has been able to score on the road this campaign. Their lone road contest was a 3-0 beatdown of the lowly Fulham, but it was a successful trip. They’ve found the back of the net eight times over the four matches, which translates to 2.0 GPG.
As for Newcastle, they’ve dropped three straight matches since the dominant 5-1 win over Aston Villa in the opener. But we know they have plenty of offensive talent and I think we’ll see it on display this Saturday. Look for Alexander Isak, whose last four goals have come at St. James’ Park, to make his way to the scoresheet. I think we’re in for at least three goals in this match.
Bet: Over 2.5 (-150)
Bournemouth (+330) vs. Chelsea (-125), DRAW (+370) | 2.5 (-160/+130)
The Blues seem to be in soccer limbo right now as they just cannot find ways to win their PL matches. Most recently, it was a 1-0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest. The underwhelming start has Chelsea at 1-1-2, where they reside in 12th on the table. Mauricio Pochettino’s men will make the trip to Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth, where they’ll face the Cherries at 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday.
While it has been an ugly start for Chelsea, they should have no issue securing a road win here. They’ll take on a Bournemouth side that currently owns the fifth-shortest odds to be relegated this season at +250.
I mean, this is simply a mismatch in talent. Chelsea boasts a payroll of $125 million this campaign while Bournemouth sits at $33 million. The lack of investment in talent has translated to the stat sheet for the Cherries as they’ve managed just four goals while conceding eight. If the Blues can’t get it done here, all hell may break loose in London. I like Chelsea to collect the three points at -125.
Bet: Chelsea Moneyline (-125)
Nottingham Forest (+125) vs. Burnley (+220), DRAW (+255) | 2.5 (-110/-110)
As mentioned above, Nottingham Forest is looking to build off of their big road win over Chelsea earlier this month. Things haven’t gone as well for the newly-promoted Burnley, who are off to a 0-0-3 start. This PL match is set for Monday at 2:45 p.m. ET from The City Ground in Nottingham.
Okay, I have a bit of a juicer play here and it’s only because Burnley beat Forest 1-0 at The City Ground on August 30th. I don’t think lightning will strike twice in the same place for the Clarets. However, if things don’t go as planned, at least we have the push to fall back on if this match ends in a draw.
With that being said, I’m anticipating a different result for the Trees this time. The main reason they were able to stay in the top flight last season was because of their home form. They went 8-6-5 on their own pitch, which was good enough for 30 of their 38 points. Also, 27 of the Trees’ 38 goals came at The City Ground. I think they’ll do plenty enough offensively to win against this Burnley side that has conceded 11 goals already (3.7 GAPG).
Bet: Nottingham Forest, Draw No Bet (-160)
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