Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Predictions, Odds & Player-Prop Picks for Game 6

Oct 17, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) walks back to his dugout after the sixth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks during game two of the NLCS for the 2023 MLB playoffs at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY SportsThe Arizona Diamondbacks face elimination on Monday night in PhiladelphiaThe Phillies have won 11 straight home playoff games against National League opponentsSee the DBacks vs Phillies predictions, odds, and player-prop picks for Game 6 on Oct. 23

On Monday night, the Philadelphia Phillies (97-75, 55-32 home) can achieve something that’s only happened one other time in the 140-year history of the franchise: reach the World Series in back-to-back seasons. Up 3-2 on the Arizona Diamondbacks (91-81, 45-42 away) in the NLCS, Philadelphia is a -183 favorite to end the best-of-seven series in Game 6. First pitch is scheduled for 5:07 pm ET.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Odds for Game 6

The DBacks come back as +150 underdogs in Monday’s MLB odds while the total is at eight runs even with the under slightly favored (-105o/-115u). After the home team won each of the first four games of the series, the Phillies got a gem from ace Zack Wheeler in Arizona on Saturday night en route to a 6-1 road victory.

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Odds as of Oct. 23 on the BetMGM Sportsbook app. Claim a BetMGM bonus code to bet on ARI vs PHI Game 6 tonight. 

The World Series odds currently list the Phillies as +115 favorites with Houston and Texas heading to a Game 7 in the ALCS tonight. Arizona is a +1400 longshot to win its first Fall Classic since 2001, and has faded all the way to +390 in the NL Pennant odds.

Starting Pitchers for DBacks vs Phillies Game 6

Monday’s MLB lineups show a battle between number-two starters in Game 6 with Philly handing the ball to Aaron Nola and Arizona countering with Merrill Kelly. This is a repeat of the pitching matchup in Game 2, which went the Phillies’ way. While the final score (10-0) was ugly for Arizona backers, Kelly actually pitched relatively well in a difficult road environment, going 5.2 innings while allowing four runs on three hits and three walks while striking out six.

Merrill Kelly vs Aaron Nola

KellyVSNola

*Statistics in the table from 2023 regular season. 

Of course, Kelly’s outing paled in comparison to the lights-out performance from Nola, who pitched six shutout innings, scattering just three hits (and no walks) while fanning seven. Nola, who posted a concerning 4.91 ERA and 1.32 WHIP during Philly’s run to the 2022 NL Pennant, is now sporting a 0.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in the 2023 postseason.

Kelly has only made one other start in the playoffs, a 6.1-inning shutout performance in the decisive Game 3 of the NLDS against the LA Dodgers. This marks the first season the 35-year-old righty has pitched in the playoffs. After Game 2, the Phillies lineup is now slashing .256/.333/.487 against Arizona’s number-two starter. Both Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber took Kelly yard in Game 2.

Nola’s numbers against the DBacks hitters heading into Game 2 were already pretty good (.255/.268/.382) and now look even better (.221/.231/.325).

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ARI vs PHI Game 6 Player Props

The MLB player props for Game 6 show Kelly with significantly higher totals than he possessed in Game 2; his strikeout over/under has been upped from 4.5 to 5.5 (though the under is favored) while his outs-recorded O/U is up two full outs from 13.5 to 15.5 (though again the under is favored).

Nola has the same strikeout number (5.5) with an outs-recorded O/U of 16.5, which is one higher than last Tuesday.

Schwarber, who’s tied for the NL lead in home runs in the postseason with five, has the shortest odds to go deep on Monday at +330. None of the Arizona hitters are shorter than +475 (Christian Walker).

DBacks vs Phillies Predictions for Game 6

Ahead of Game 2, I made a lot of Kelly’s struggles on the road over his career. During the 2023 regular season, he had home/road ERA splits of 2.59 home/4.07 away, and his career ERA away from home is even higher (4.48). While Kelly’s performance last Tuesday was respectable, I don’t expect manager Torey Lovullo to give him much leash in this elimination game. The teams had yesterday off and the bullpens will be rested. Arizona has leaned heavily on its highly effective relievers all season and that won’t change in the biggest game of the year.

Nola, on the other hand, is much more likely to go deep into Game 6. The 30-year-old has always possessed electric stuff and, after an ugly regular season, appears to have turned a corner in the playoffs. After surrendering at least one home run in 23 of his 32 regular-season starts, he’s kept opponents in the park in all three playoff starts (18.2 total innings) while striking out just over one batter per inning (19 total).

DBacks vs Phillies Picks:

Phillies moneyline first 5 innings (-174 at FanDuel)Kelly under 15.5 outs (-180 on the DraftKings Sportsbook app)

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