Week 14 NFL Upset Picks – Underdogs Showing Value

Nov 27, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs off the field after the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY SportsWhich NFL underdogs are poised to pull off the upset in Week 14?After barely beating the Lions in Week 11, can the Bears and Justin Fields get the job done at home as +145 underdogs?Check out our favorite Week 14 NFL upset picks below

Where will the chips fall this week in the NFL?  There are nine games lined within four points on Sunday for Week 14 so it should be another weekend of close games where backing NFL underdogs can be a profitable strategy. We’ve come up with our top three NFL upset picks for Week 14 here.

NFL Week 14 Upset Picks

Our Week 14 NFL upset picks will include plays on the Bears (+145), Broncos (+125) and Eagles (+155). Odds from ESPN Sportsbook.

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Week 14 NFL Upset Picks

We’re backing some Bears revenge over the Lions after they let a lead slip away in the last meeting. Plus, the Chargers to fall back into the loss column after barely edging by the Patriots and the Cowboys to continue a trend of failing to beat a team with a winning record for our NFL underdog picks this weekend.

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NFL Upset Picks 1: Chicago Over Detroit

We just saw this NFC North matchup a few weeks ago with Detroit mounting a late comeback, down 26-14 in the fourh quarter. They needed almost every second to get it, scoring  17 points in the final three minutes. That’s as unlikely a comeback as you can find.

Chicago picked off Jared Goff three times and controlled the time of possession battle with 40:24 compared to 19:36 for Detroit.

Chicago only has three wins on the season but two of those have come in their past three games.

The 9-3 Lions are obviously the better side here, but have looked shaky in recent weeks losing on Thanksgiving at home to Green Bay and nearly coughing up a 21-0 lead over the Saints last week. New Orleans clawed back to make it 24-21 before going on to lose 33-28.

Detroit has some injuries to worry about here with C Frank Ragnow questionable and FB Jason Cabinda on the IR. On defense, they were already missing LB James Houston and FS CJ Gardner-Johnson and have now sent DT Alim McNeill to the IR with a knee injury as well. That’s bad news for a defense that has given up 28, 29, 26 and 38 points this past month.

NFL Upset Picks: Bears (+145)

ICYMI

The sample size is small. The competition hasn't been upper echelon. The improvement of the #Bears defense is undeniable, though, especially vs. the pass.

Just dive into some of the numbers since Montez Sweat arrived in Week 9.https://t.co/sMHhkETf9y

— Brad Biggs (@BradBiggs) December 8, 2023

NFL Upset Picks 2: Denver Over Los Angeles

I had the Chargers as an ATS pick last week and a Survivor Pool pick, so yes, they got there, but oh boy did they make me sweat. This, despite shutting a team out. A shutout. Shutouts are rare, but if you do shut a team out, you usually expect that team to coast to the finish line.

Not the case last week with the Chargers who managed a whole two field goals and 241 yards of total offense against the 2-10 Patriots in a 6-0 win.

Denver may be coming off a loss, but that was in Houston to CJ Stroud and the surging Texans. They had won five games straight prior to that, while also being 4-1 ATS in those wins.

New England had scored a combined 13 points in three games and averaged a league-low 12.3 PPG prior to TNF vs Pittsburgh. Denver’s offense may not be elite, but they’re still 15th in scoring 21.9 PPG which may be enough to beat this Chargers team and cash in for our NFL underdog picks.

NFL Upset Picks: Broncos (+125)

Who needs the win more: Philly or Dallas?

"The Eagles brand is 'find ways to win.' If they lose to the Cowboys, and all of a sudden they have the same win-loss record as the Lions, that mystique is gone a bit." — @getnickwright pic.twitter.com/zX8vXz98K6

— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) December 7, 2023

NFL Upset Picks 3: Philadelphia Over Dallas

The Eagles already beat Dallas once this season, 28-23 at home. Philadelphia is coming off an embarrassing 42-19 home loss to the 49ers last week, but are still a league-best 10-2 SU and 7-3-2 ATS.

Dallas is right behind though at 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. They’re also riding an incredible home-field winning streak of 14 games. So an Eagles win would have to go against Dallas’ strong home-field edge. Still, all nine of Dallas’ wins have come against teams at .500 or with a losing record.

The Rams and Seahawks are both 6-6 but otherwise, their other six opponents (Giants twice) all have losing records.

The Seahawks aren’t a bad team but they aren’t a great team either. And they, with Geno Smith went toe-to-toe with the Cowboys last week and were leading 35-27 in the fourth quarter before coughing up the lead late-on and losing 41-35. The Cowboys are just not a team that has proven they can handle beating good teams. The Eagles are a good team and offer value in our Week 14 upset picks.

NFL Upset Picks: Eagles (+155)

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